Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 18.790288 21.755210 24.966606 28.694717 32.894502 37.470008 42.822552
2024-12-15 14.460614 18.644195 23.594788 29.843116 37.472959 46.438138 57.716476
2024-12-22 11.124181 15.779343 21.731003 29.798277 40.333473 53.498492 71.049205
2024-12-29 9.392155 14.459273 21.375894 31.322291 45.039911 63.044600 88.165104
2025-01-05 7.846995 13.026658 20.530825 31.907885 48.369287 70.913267 103.613833
2025-01-12 6.548004 11.669682 19.512700 31.993045 50.848622 77.666383 117.918818
2025-01-19 5.534706 10.546219 18.627561 32.071664 53.194688 84.271394 132.350501
2025-01-26 5.137766 10.355435 19.138587 34.293025 58.871612 96.027625 154.913783
2025-02-02 4.654164 9.918546 19.162913 35.688953 63.323734 106.195619 175.707293
2025-02-09 4.224496 9.499047 19.142268 36.967675 67.637883 116.373100 197.065006
2025-02-16 3.675289 8.747435 18.421492 36.935801 69.739487 123.154386 213.491641
2025-02-23 3.102289 7.838317 17.278259 36.001938 70.182959 127.231995 225.792295
2025-03-02 2.600812 6.999340 16.179878 35.073887 70.635852 131.493895 238.913084
2025-03-09 2.290294 6.529047 15.752003 35.369510 73.304181 139.663358 259.000960
2025-03-16 1.959247 5.939641 14.989978 34.915472 74.538858 145.433526 275.383695
2025-03-23 1.830362 5.826432 15.232088 36.502763 79.723915 158.403876 304.736617
2025-03-30 1.646787 5.529995 15.019779 37.109099 83.040029 168.200524 329.036631
2025-04-06 1.452767 5.160812 14.584246 37.182357 85.293029 176.174872 350.504674
2025-04-13 1.284384 4.825060 14.176547 37.262756 87.546570 184.251375 372.527055
2025-04-20 1.258977 4.915007 14.828189 39.786435 94.987330 202.428147 413.684951
2025-04-27 1.187447 4.845104 15.064298 41.371615 100.569218 217.347103 449.514267
2025-05-04 1.115013 4.756243 15.238307 42.823482 105.960609 232.160574 485.782349
2025-05-11 0.989843 4.458107 14.810796 42.787068 108.132927 240.808138 510.872626